Recovery in sight

The UK government’s vaccine policy of delaying the second dose of a vaccine for some twelve weeks – as opposed to the manufacturers’ recommendations of three weeks – was intended to maximise the number of first doses in the shortest possible time as opposed to maximising the protection to the individual who has been vaccinated. Since being initiated, the WHO has endorsed the process even if few, if any, other countries have followed suit.

New research (reported in the Daily Telegraph 25/02/2021) from the UK experience in the real world shows that The Astra Zeneca drug is more efficacious that the Pfizer one, with after 30 days, 94% less people who have had one inoculation with it being admitted to hospital with Covid-19. The equivalent figure for the Pfizer vaccination was 85%.

For the Pfizer drug, the effectiveness dropped from that point until it reached 64% after 42 days. This is, of course, without the second dose, and it might be expected that a second dose would boost the immunity again. Unfortunately, equivalent figures are not yet available for the AstraZeneca one, so it is not clear whether or not its effectiveness declines after 30 or so days.

Nevertheless, this provides much support for the UK government’s strategy and reinforces the expectation that the UK economy will be one of the first to open up following a mass vaccination programme. The view of economists is that the UK is poised for a resurgence in economic growth as soon as the lock-down (one of the most severe globally) is relaxed. Besides the benefits that it will bring to individuals and businesses, we should expect a boost to real estate markets (with rents being paid) and equities markets (with earnings growth and increased dividends).

https://digitaleditions.telegraph.co.uk/data/517/reader/reader.html?#!preferred/0/package/517/pub/517/page/20/article/144796